Description: Charts created for the paper:
Rodrigues, R., Pietzcker, R., Sitarz, J., Merfort, A., Hasse, R.,
Hoppe, J., Pehl, M., Ershad, A. M., Baumstark, L., Luderer, G. 2040
greenhouse gas reduction targets and energy transitions in line with the
EU Green Deal. under revision (2023).
Data
Reference emissions
|
target
|
region
|
period
|
tgt55
|
tgt57
|
tgt59
|
tgt61
|
tgt63
|
tgt65
|
|
Emissions with LULUCF and with intra-EU aviation
|
EU-27
|
2030
|
2117
|
2023
|
1929
|
1835
|
1741
|
1647
|
|
Emissions with LULUCF and without international transport
|
Germany
|
2030
|
|
|
|
|
|
449
|
Efficiency targets
|
target
|
Final_Energy_Mtoe
|
Final_Energy_Twa
|
reduction_from_2020_Reference_Scenario
|
|
reference
|
846
|
1.1235
|
0.02
|
|
FitFor55 eff
|
787
|
1.0452
|
0.09
|
|
RePowerEU eff
|
750
|
0.9960
|
0.13
|
2040 Emission Reductions
|
Budget
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
Emissions with LULUCF and with international transport
|
46
|
43
|
50
|
|
Emissions without LULUCF and with international transport
|
55
|
52
|
59
|
|
Emissions with LULUCF and with intra-EU aviation
|
42
|
40
|
47
|
|
Emissions without LULUCF and with intra-EU aviation
|
51
|
49
|
56
|
|
Gross Emissions without LULUCF and with international transport
|
52
|
49
|
57
|
Results
|
indirect_electrification
|
reference_value_EJ
|
min_EJ
|
max_EJ
|
reference_value_Mtoe
|
min_Mtoe
|
max_Mtoe
|
|
total
|
1.6
|
1.0
|
1.7
|
38.2
|
23.9
|
40.6
|
|
buildings
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
transport
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.3
|
4.8
|
2.4
|
7.2
|
|
industry
|
1.4
|
0.9
|
1.4
|
33.4
|
21.5
|
33.4
|
|
electricity_demand_upscale
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
2030
|
133
|
125
|
135
|
|
2040
|
158
|
134
|
166
|
|
electricity_share_in_FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
2030
|
30
|
28
|
32
|
|
2040
|
45
|
39
|
52
|
|
wind_and_Solar_gen_upscale
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
2030
|
3.8
|
3.0
|
4.1
|
|
2040
|
6.9
|
4.6
|
7.9
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
Wind_and_Solar_participation_2040_%
|
80
|
66
|
83
|
|
Electricity_Generation
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
coal_in_generation_(%)
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.70
|
|
gas_in_generation_(%)
|
1.07
|
0.37
|
9.92
|
|
nuclear_in_generation_(%)
|
6.18
|
5.67
|
7.41
|
|
wind_and_Solar_gen_(%)
|
80.36
|
66.29
|
82.83
|
|
wind_and_Solar_cap_(TW)
|
2.49
|
1.65
|
2.84
|
|
FE
|
reference_value_2020
|
reference_value_2040
|
min
|
max
|
|
share_of_fossil_without_CCS_in_electricity_(%)
|
40
|
1
|
0
|
11
|
|
Primary_Energy
|
relative_to_2020
|
|
Biomass
|
99.6
|
|
Coal
|
1.9
|
|
Gas
|
27.5
|
|
Oil
|
39.4
|
|
Primary_Energy_Imports
|
relative_to_2020
|
|
Biomass
|
17601.4
|
|
Coal
|
4.3
|
|
Gas
|
26.8
|
|
Oil
|
38.8
|
|
FE
|
relative_to_2020
|
|
Gas_and_hydrogen_(%)
|
55.5
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
fe_electricity_relative_to_2020_(%)
|
157.7
|
134.1
|
165.6
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
transport_electricity_(%)
|
165.6
|
156.9
|
166.8
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
share_of_sustainable_fuel_in_aviation_(%)
|
17.2
|
12.1
|
33.7
|
|
share_of_sustainable_fuel_in_shipping_(%)
|
12.4
|
8.6
|
28.9
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
share_of_electric_and_district_buildings_heating_useful energy_(%)
|
75
|
65
|
87
|
|
share_of_liquids_and_gases_buildings_heating_useful_energy_(%)
|
20
|
9
|
30
|
|
share_of_solids_buildings_heating_useful energy_(%)
|
4
|
3
|
5
|
|
share_of_liquids_and_gases_buildings_heating_useful_energy_2020_(%)
|
48
|
48
|
48
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
share_of_build_FE_in_relation_to_2020_(%)
|
41
|
31
|
59
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
share_of_EVs_in_LDVs_(%)
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
FE_chemicals
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2020 (%)
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
|
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2030 (%)
|
10
|
9
|
14
|
|
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2040 (%)
|
21
|
17
|
33
|
|
FE_other_industry
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
hydrocarbons_2020 (%)
|
46
|
46
|
46
|
|
hydrocarbons_2030 (%)
|
40
|
31
|
41
|
|
hydrocarbons_2040 (%)
|
23
|
15
|
29
|
Carbon Management Results
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
CCS_deployment_in_2030_MtCO2
|
33
|
11
|
44
|
|
CCS_deployment_in_2040_MtCO2
|
188
|
59
|
260
|
|
CCS_upscaling_rates_2030_2040_%
|
19
|
14
|
21
|
|
novel_CDR_upscaling_rates_2030_2040_%
|
21
|
16
|
27
|
|
novel_CDR_deployment_in_2040_MtCO2
|
133
|
39
|
209
|
Milestones upscaling rates
|
share_of_electricity_in_final_energy
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
2030
|
29.5
|
28.3
|
32.3
|
|
2040
|
45.1
|
39.5
|
51.7
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
FE_Transport_change_%
|
-46
|
-55
|
-43
|
|
FE_Buildings_change_%
|
-26
|
-45
|
-18
|
|
FE_Industry_change_%
|
-25
|
-44
|
-15
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
Renewables_Share_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_%
|
4.4
|
4.2
|
5.2
|
|
Renewables_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
5.9
|
4.9
|
6.9
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_%
|
-16.4
|
-16.8
|
-15.6
|
|
Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
4.3
|
3.4
|
5.3
|
|
Transport_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
8.9
|
8.4
|
9.9
|
|
Buildings_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
3.5
|
2.4
|
4.7
|
|
Industry_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
2.9
|
1.9
|
4.0
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
Hydrogen_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
12.6
|
6.0
|
12.9
|
|
Hydrogen_upscaling_rates_2040_to_2050_%
|
4.6
|
1.3
|
4.9
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
Electricity_Demand_yearly_install_2022_to_2030_(Twh)
|
130.0
|
103.0
|
137.0
|
|
Electricity_Demand_yearly_install_2030_to_2040_(Twh)
|
65.0
|
23.0
|
85.0
|
|
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_%
|
4.5
|
3.7
|
4.7
|
|
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2020_to_2030_%
|
2.9
|
2.3
|
3.1
|
|
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
1.7
|
0.7
|
2.2
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
SolarPV_2022_vs_2040_X
|
8.3
|
5.7
|
9.3
|
|
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
6.0
|
5.3
|
6.7
|
|
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2040_%
|
12.5
|
10.1
|
13.2
|
|
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_%
|
21.2
|
16.5
|
22.3
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
wind_2022_vs_2040_X
|
2.9
|
1.8
|
3.5
|
|
Wind_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
6.0
|
3.4
|
6.8
|
|
Wind_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2040_%
|
6.2
|
3.2
|
7.2
|
|
Wind_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_%
|
6.4
|
3.0
|
7.7
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2030
|
1980
|
1737
|
2056
|
|
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2040
|
821
|
529
|
1015
|
|
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2050
|
338
|
94
|
442
|