Description: Charts created for the paper:

Rodrigues, R., Pietzcker, R., Sitarz, J., Merfort, A., Hasse, R., Hoppe, J., Pehl, M., Ershad, A. M., Baumstark, L., Luderer, G. 2040 greenhouse gas reduction targets and energy transitions in line with the EU Green Deal. under revision (2023).

Data

Reference emissions

target region period tgt55 tgt57 tgt59 tgt61 tgt63 tgt65
Emissions with LULUCF and with intra-EU aviation EU-27 2030 2117 2023 1929 1835 1741 1647
Emissions with LULUCF and without international transport Germany 2030 449

Efficiency targets

target Final_Energy_Mtoe Final_Energy_Twa reduction_from_2020_Reference_Scenario
reference 846 1.1235 0.02
FitFor55 eff 787 1.0452 0.09
RePowerEU eff 750 0.9960 0.13

2040 Emission Reductions

Budget reference_value min max
Emissions with LULUCF and with international transport 46 43 50
Emissions without LULUCF and with international transport 55 52 59
Emissions with LULUCF and with intra-EU aviation 42 40 47
Emissions without LULUCF and with intra-EU aviation 51 49 56
Gross Emissions without LULUCF and with international transport 52 49 57

Results

indirect_electrification reference_value_EJ min_EJ max_EJ reference_value_Mtoe min_Mtoe max_Mtoe
total 1.6 1.0 1.7 38.2 23.9 40.6
buildings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
transport 0.2 0.1 0.3 4.8 2.4 7.2
industry 1.4 0.9 1.4 33.4 21.5 33.4
electricity_demand_upscale reference_value min max
2030 133 125 135
2040 158 134 166
electricity_share_in_FE reference_value min max
2030 30 28 32
2040 45 39 52
wind_and_Solar_gen_upscale reference_value min max
2030 3.8 3.0 4.1
2040 6.9 4.6 7.9
result reference_value min max
Wind_and_Solar_participation_2040_% 80 66 83
Electricity_Generation reference_value min max
coal_in_generation_(%) 0.00 0.00 0.70
gas_in_generation_(%) 1.07 0.37 9.92
nuclear_in_generation_(%) 6.18 5.67 7.41
wind_and_Solar_gen_(%) 80.36 66.29 82.83
wind_and_Solar_cap_(TW) 2.49 1.65 2.84
FE reference_value_2020 reference_value_2040 min max
share_of_fossil_without_CCS_in_electricity_(%) 40 1 0 11
Primary_Energy relative_to_2020
Biomass 99.6
Coal 1.9
Gas 27.5
Oil 39.4
Primary_Energy_Imports relative_to_2020
Biomass 17601.4
Coal 4.3
Gas 26.8
Oil 38.8
FE relative_to_2020
Gas_and_hydrogen_(%) 55.5
FE reference_value min max
fe_electricity_relative_to_2020_(%) 157.7 134.1 165.6
FE reference_value min max
transport_electricity_(%) 165.6 156.9 166.8
FE reference_value min max
share_of_sustainable_fuel_in_aviation_(%) 17.2 12.1 33.7
share_of_sustainable_fuel_in_shipping_(%) 12.4 8.6 28.9
FE reference_value min max
share_of_electric_and_district_buildings_heating_useful energy_(%) 75 65 87
share_of_liquids_and_gases_buildings_heating_useful_energy_(%) 20 9 30
share_of_solids_buildings_heating_useful energy_(%) 4 3 5
share_of_liquids_and_gases_buildings_heating_useful_energy_2020_(%) 48 48 48
FE reference_value min max
share_of_build_FE_in_relation_to_2020_(%) 41 31 59
FE reference_value min max
share_of_EVs_in_LDVs_(%) 100 100 100
FE_chemicals reference_value min max
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2020 (%) 5 5 5
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2030 (%) 10 9 14
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2040 (%) 21 17 33
FE_other_industry reference_value min max
hydrocarbons_2020 (%) 46 46 46
hydrocarbons_2030 (%) 40 31 41
hydrocarbons_2040 (%) 23 15 29

Carbon Management Results

result reference_value min max
CCS_deployment_in_2030_MtCO2 33 11 44
CCS_deployment_in_2040_MtCO2 188 59 260
CCS_upscaling_rates_2030_2040_% 19 14 21
novel_CDR_upscaling_rates_2030_2040_% 21 16 27
novel_CDR_deployment_in_2040_MtCO2 133 39 209

Milestones upscaling rates

share_of_electricity_in_final_energy reference_value min max
2030 29.5 28.3 32.3
2040 45.1 39.5 51.7
result reference_value min max
FE_Transport_change_% -46 -55 -43
FE_Buildings_change_% -26 -45 -18
FE_Industry_change_% -25 -44 -15
result reference_value min max
Renewables_Share_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_% 4.4 4.2 5.2
Renewables_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 5.9 4.9 6.9
result reference_value min max
Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_% -16.4 -16.8 -15.6
Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 4.3 3.4 5.3
Transport_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 8.9 8.4 9.9
Buildings_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 3.5 2.4 4.7
Industry_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 2.9 1.9 4.0
result reference_value min max
Hydrogen_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 12.6 6.0 12.9
Hydrogen_upscaling_rates_2040_to_2050_% 4.6 1.3 4.9
result reference_value min max
Electricity_Demand_yearly_install_2022_to_2030_(Twh) 130.0 103.0 137.0
Electricity_Demand_yearly_install_2030_to_2040_(Twh) 65.0 23.0 85.0
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_% 4.5 3.7 4.7
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2020_to_2030_% 2.9 2.3 3.1
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 1.7 0.7 2.2
result reference_value min max
SolarPV_2022_vs_2040_X 8.3 5.7 9.3
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 6.0 5.3 6.7
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2040_% 12.5 10.1 13.2
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_% 21.2 16.5 22.3
result reference_value min max
wind_2022_vs_2040_X 2.9 1.8 3.5
Wind_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_% 6.0 3.4 6.8
Wind_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2040_% 6.2 3.2 7.2
Wind_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_% 6.4 3.0 7.7
result reference_value min max
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2030 1980 1737 2056
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2040 821 529 1015
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2050 338 94 442

Figure 1. Emission results panel

Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emission reductions for scenarios reaching climate neutrality by 2050. Central values are given for the reference scenario (57% reduction by 2030, reference final energy projections, biomass availability limited to 7.5 EJ/yr and default CCS assumption), ranges for the full scenario ensemble.

Figure 2. Electricity panel

Figure 3. Energy supply panel

Figure 4. Demand panel

Figure 5. Targets update

Supplementary Information:

Supplementary Figure 1 - Variable renewables sensitivity panel

  1. Limited VRE target reduction (%)

Supplementary Figure 2 - Mitigation costs panel

Supplementary Figure 3 - Country results electricity capacity panel (GW)

Supplementary Figure 4 - Sectoral mitigation - Energy and non-energy use panel

Supplementary Figure 5 - Sectoral mitigation - GHG Emissions per sector (Mt CO2/yr)

Supplementary Figure 6 - GHG emissions per gases (Mt CO2/yr)

Supplementary Figure 7 - Carbon-dioxide removal